Demand Modeling
Perspective
Utilization of healthcare services is a function of a number of interrelated factors. The size and demographic characteristics of the population being served by a healthcare program form the basis for current and future utilization. The prevalence and incidence of various diseases among the population then impact need for certain services. But future utilization will also be impacted by technological changes and competition. Accurately anticipating the future volume of most healthcare services can be very challenging and many organizations are forced to develop projections based on historical trends alone.
Need
Hospitals and health systems need to be able to accurately predict the volume of services that will be consumed by their myriad of programs. These volumes drive the amount of space, equipment and personnel that the programs will need. Volumes will also determine the financial viability of healthcare programs. To be able to accurately assess future volumes of service, the hospital must be able to answer several key questions.
- How large is the population of our market area?
- Do we expect to increase the area we are serving?
- What are the age and demographic characteristics of the current and future population?
- What has been the historical use rate of the program being evaluated?
- What environmental or technological factors are likely to impact future use rates?
- Who is our competition today?
- Are there new competitors entering the market?
ASR Planning can help organizations answer these and many related questions.
Idea
Our multi-dimensional model for projecting demand is useful for strategic planning, facility planning, operations improvement studies, feasibility studies and financial planning. We can assist hospitals in predicting inpatient admissions/discharges and days by clinical service or product line. We can project future volumes of diagnostic and treatment services being used by both inpatients and outpatients. Our model has been successfully used in ambulatory, acute and post-acute care settings.
Benefits
The key benefits associated with using our demand modeling process include:
- An objective evaluation of future volume trends that can be used in strategic planning, facility planning, operations improvement and financial planning.
- An economically efficient means of generating important management information. A research and experienced based process design.
- An integrated menu of services to support timely and informed decision making.
Solution
Our team of seasoned healthcare consultants has generated volume projections numerous times for virtually every clinical program and service. We conduct ongoing research to remain current with clinical trends and technology assessments. Our modeling process takes advantage of consultants with the depth and breadth of experience to accomplish the task.
Contact
Douglas Rich, FAAHC, FACHE
Managing Director
Phone: 773.880.2218
doug.rich@asrplanning.com
Office
2835 North Sheffield Avenue, Suite 309
Chicago, IL 60657-5084
